Research | Ahmed Chaudhry

2024

Do Limits to Campaign Contribution Laws Affect Welfare Policy? Evidence from the US States

Ahmed Chaudhry

Job Market Paper, 2024

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How do campaign contribution laws affect pro-welfare policies? The US political system is highly unequal as policy preferences of high-income citizens are often prioritized compared to that of low-income groups. Therefore, it is widely believed that interest groups – corporations, PACs, and labor unions – employ campaign contributions as a bargaining tool to obtain access, favor, or vote by political candidates. Evidence shows that restricting money in politics via stricter campaign contribution laws can reduce the bargaining power of interest groups over candidates and increase the say of low-income groups in policy matters. Therefore, the effect of stricter contribution laws should also manifest as a shift towards relatively pro-welfare policies. This paper analyzes the relationship between stricter campaign contribution laws and pro-welfare policy across the state-wide legislative races from 1980 to 2018, exploiting the heterogeneity of laws across the US states. The legislative power of state representatives on minimum wage and earned income tax credit policies makes them a good proxy of a state’s welfare policy; alternative welfare policy proxies are also employed. The empirical results from the two-way fixed-effects model and the interactive fixed-effects counterfactual estimator indicate that stricter campaign contribution laws lead to higher minimum wage at the state level. Not as strong, but the estimates also suggest that more stringent contribution laws in a state result in a relatively generous EITC rate as a percentage of the federal rate. The effect of stricter laws on welfare policy generosity is also evident when alternative state welfare policy proxies are used. The empirical estimates withstand a variety of robustness tests.

2023

When One Cannot Live Without the Other: The Interrelationship Between Political Ideology, IMF Program, and Conditionality

Ahmed Chaudhry

Working Paper, 2023

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I explore the effect of the incumbent political ideology on opting into an International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan program and conditions and, in turn, the effect of an IMF program and conditions on a shift in political ideology as measured by government changes for approximately 150 countries from 198 to 2014. The political ideology is defined as an interventionist left-wing or a market-oriented right-wing. The IMF closely follows the neoclassical school of economic thinking, which strongly advocates for free and competitive markets instead of a development policy based on state interventionism to foster economic growth. Literature shows that domestic and international politics play a central role in determining the IMF loan and conditions. Ipso facto, we can anticipate that IMF program participation and conditionalities also affect the domestic political economy regarding political ideology changes in a country. However, no previous study has analyzed the cyclical relationship between political ideology and IMF program and conditions. Using an instrumental variable approach to cater to the endogeneity of the IMF program and conditions, the results show that compared to right-wing governments; left-wing governments are less likely to opt for an IMF loan; however, they also face fewer conditions. Post-IMF program presence, more IMF conditions also decrease the probability of left-wing governments, and vice versa.
The Effect of Political Ideology on Productive Capabilities

Ahmed Chaudhry

Work in Progress, 2023
Does Flu Vaccination Affect Wages? State-Level Evidence from the US

Pallab Ghosh, Firat Demir, Myongjin Kim, Ahmed Chaudhry, and Junying Zhao

Under Review, 2023

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This paper examines the effects of state-level adult and child seasonal flu vaccination rates on hourly real wages for women. Using an IV method to address possible endogeneity, we find a significantly positive effect of adult vaccination on women’s wages. Furthermore, we show that this effect is stronger for working mothers age groups 16-24 and 25-44, and those with younger children aged 6 months-12 years. We also find that children’s vaccination has a significantly positive effect on mothers’ wages and that this effect is stronger for women with younger children. The results also show that the positive effect is particularly larger for non-college educated women, aged 16-44 with at least one child. These effects are also stronger for mothers with younger children.
Effects of CDC Recommendation on HPV Vaccine Uptake 2010 – 2015

Pallab Ghosh, Ahmed Chaudhry, Firat Demir, Myongjin Kim, Junying Zhao, and 1 more author

Under Review, 2023

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This study evaluates the impact of US CDC’s HPV vaccine recommendations on male adults and children. This study uses the 2010-2015 US National Health Interview Survey to evaluate the before-after policy change effect of HPV recommendation on an individual’s probability of HPV vaccination. Dummy regression analyses with fixed effects show that HPV vaccine policy is significantly associated with a 14.7% increase in the likelihood of HPV vaccination for men aged 11-21. HPV vaccine recommendations are also associated with modest spillover effects, i.e., a 5.6% increased likelihood for men aged 22-25 and marginally for men aged 26-60. African American men and men with poor health are 2.7% and 15.4% less likely to uptake HPV vaccines than white men and men with good or fair health, respectively. Findings offer comprehensive evidence of the effectiveness and spillover effects of this type of federal-level policy, provide policy lessons for other vaccines, and identify vulnerable subpopulations as targets for future interventions.
Determinants of Leader Appointment in International Organizations

Firat Demir, and Ahmed Chaudhry

Work in Progress, 2023
Effect of Campaign Contribution Laws on State-Level Economic Development Incentives

Ahmed Chaudhry

Work in Progress, 2023
Impact of Political Ideology on (De)Militarization

Ahmed Chaudhry, and Anthony Mayberry

Work in Progress, 2023
Covid-19 and Food Insecurity in Pakistan

Ahmed Chaudhry

Work in Progress, 2023

2019

Political competition and economic policy: empirical evidence from Pakistan

Ahmed Chaudhry, and Ummad Mazhar

Economics, 2019

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The influence of politics on economic policy is not fully understood. The challenge to ensure political inclusiveness and economic prosperity remains. Perhaps, one way to attain this objective is by increasing political competition. This paper gathers empirical evidence from Pakistan, a country with a checkered political history characterized by episodes of representative, non-representative, and indirectly elected governments. In recent years, the country has witnessed a gradual strengthening of democratic rules with economic progress. Focusing on nine elections held over 1970 to 2015 the authors measure political competition and estimate its impact on economic policy. Contrary to popular conceptions about Pakistan’s economy, they find a positive association between lack of political competition and poor economic policy. This finding holds at national as well as subnational levels in Pakistan and withstands a number of robustness tests.